November 25, 2013

It's Better Than Bombing

Fabrice Coffrini/AFP
So the usual suspects are freaking out about the interim deal reached with Iran over it's nuclear program:
"This agreement shows other rogue states that wish to go nuclear that you can obfuscate, cheat, and lie for a decade, and eventually the United States will tire and drop key demands," Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thinks the agreement makes "the world a much more dangerous place". And both Republicans and some Democrats in the Senate want to pass even more sanctions on Iran.

All of this hand-wringing, whining and disappointment miss two key elements when it comes to Iran and it's nuclear program.

  1. Iran has signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty: This matters quite a bit because, per the treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. If you are intent on bringing Iran back into global society as a responsible member, you cannot deny them the rights they have under international treaties that they have signed. That's not how it works.

  2. Military strikes on Iran's nuclear program are useless: Using air strikes to achieve a goal like stopping ethnic cleansing or preventing incursions into no-fly zones work because those strikes just have to be effective enough to convince the bad actor to stop their actions.

    In the case of Iran's nuclear program, "effective enough" isn't good enough. If you were to use air strikes to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, they would have to be 100% effective AND they'd have to work the first time. Because if they don't, then Iran has no reason to not go ahead and finish weaponizing their fissile material and making a working bomb. There would be no bringing them back to the negotiating table.

    And there is no scenario - none - where there is a 100% guarantee that Iran's nuclear program could be eliminated by air strikes. Could air strikes dent the program and delay it? That is likely. But that only would set Iran on a crash-course to finish weaponizing their material for a bomb. Unless you can guarantee with 100% certainty the strikes would work...the strikes are useless.

Negotiating with your enemies is hard. Especially considering the history that the US and Iran share. But if we could do it with Germany and Japan in 1945...if we could negotiate arms reduction treaties with the Soviets in the 70s and 80s...then we can negotiate with Iran to reduce their nuclear program to a level consistent with peaceful usage.

This isn't North Korea. Unlike them, Iran is engaged with the wider world. And their people are aware of what is going on globally, of the freedoms that exist elsewhere, and want to be a part of that world.

This is a chance to peacefully resolve one of the major foreign policy issues the United States - and the world - face at this moment. We'd be fools to ignore the chance to make it happen.


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